An earlier read of the world's wheat crop
Weekly yield nowcasts for 13 origins, a call before every USDA report, satellite crop health, EU cash prices and the world balance in one place, with a track record anyone can audit.
Who it is for
Built for the people who price wheat
Traders and merchants
Know which way the next USDA number is likely to move, origin by origin, before it is published.
Millers and feed buyers
Time purchases on the crop, not on the headlines: weekly reads of the exporters you buy from.
Risk and research teams
A clean, point-in-time history of every forecast to plug into your own models and reports.
Co-ops and advisers
A clear weekly view of the world crop and EU cash prices to share with growers and clients.
What you get
Everything a wheat desk needs before the report
13 origins, every week
US, EU, France, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, China, India, Pakistan and Turkey, on each crop's own calendar.
A call before every WASDE
On the morning of each USDA report: where our numbers stand against USDA's, which way we expect the revision, and what it means for the exporters' balance.
Crop health from orbit
Weekly satellite vegetation health over every wheat region since 1982, so you see stress building weeks before it shows in the statistics.
Prices and news in one place
EU cash prices for wheat, durum, maize and barley, every USDA report and every nowcast in a single feed.
Data you can use
Every series as CSV, one row per forecast, with the date it was made: ready for your spreadsheets and models.
A record you can audit
Every forecast is time-stamped by independent authorities before the report it anticipates. Nothing is edited after the fact.
How it works
Three steps, every week
Watch the crop
Weather, crop condition and satellite readings for every wheat region, each taken only as it becomes available.
Read the yield
Each region's crop is read against its long-run trend and updated every week of the season.
Call the report
Before every USDA report we publish our number and the direction we expect, then score it.
Plans
Free to read, Pro to act on
Pro and Desk are priced per team. Write to us for a two-week trial with full access.
| Free | Pro | Desk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowcasts for every origin | 14 days late | Real time | Real time |
| Satellite crop health | 14 days late | Real time | Real time |
| Pre-WASDE note | 14 days late | Morning of the report | Morning of the report |
| EU cash prices and news feed | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Track record and world balance | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| CSV downloads | – | ✓ | ✓ |
| Data feed for your systems | – | – | ✓ |
| Custom origins and analyst calls | – | – | ✓ |
| Start reading | Free trial | Contact us |
Questions
Before you ask
How early is it?
Our first read of each crop comes months before harvest: for US winter wheat on 1 April, six weeks before USDA's first state forecast. It is updated every week until the final number.
Does it beat USDA?
Not everywhere, and we say so. Early in the season it adds real information; on Russia it was closer than USDA's May number in 10 of 13 years. From mid-May in the US it is level with USDA (3.25 vs 3.33 bu/ac error on 15 May). Every score is on the track record page.
How do I know the record is genuine?
Each forecast is time-stamped by independent certification authorities before the report it anticipates, and sealed so that no past forecast can be changed. Auditors can check it.
Where does the data come from?
Public sources: USDA, NASA, NOAA satellites, Eurostat and the European Commission. You get the read, not just the raw data.
Can I make money with it?
It tells you which way USDA is likely to move the big exporters, months early and right about two times in three. How you trade on that is your call; we show exactly how early and how often we were right on the Ahead of USDA page.
Can I see the methodology?
Yes. Subscribers can request our full technical white paper at [email protected]: the variables, how the sources are weighted, the out-of-sample tests against the trend and USDA, and how the uncertainty ranges are calibrated.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is information on crops and markets to support your own decisions.
See the next report coming
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