Beyond the yield: quality and what can ship
A buyer pays for protein, test weight and dry grain, and only the surplus over home use reaches the world market. We call harvest quality from the weather before the official surveys, and track each exporter's exportable surplus at every WASDE.
Exportable
What each exporter can still ship · WASDE Oct 2026
Exportable = beginning stocks + crop + imports − home use − the lowest ending stocks of the last five seasons. Headroom is what is left after USDA's export forecast: large headroom means the origin can sell more if the price is right.
| Origin | Crop | Exportable | USDA exports | Headroom | Surplus used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 88.0 | 48.5 | 40.0 | +8.5 | 82% |
| Ukraine | 26.0 | 17.9 | 12.5 | +5.4 | 70% |
| United States | 41.7 | 25.1 | 20.4 | +4.6 | 81% |
| Australia | 31.0 | 26.0 | 23.5 | +2.5 | 90% |
| Canada | 36.5 | 31.6 | 30.5 | +1.1 | 97% |
| Kazakhstan | 15.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | +0.5 | 95% |
| EU | 133.0 | 30.9 | 31.0 | -0.1 | 100% |
| Argentina | 21.5 | 15.9 | 16.0 | -0.1 | 100% |
When our crop differs from USDA's, USDA moved that origin's exports the same way at the next report in 66% of cases (Australia 72%, Canada 63%, Kazakhstan 87%, Russia 84%, Ukraine 80%; Argentina is the exception).
Quality
Harvest quality, weeks before the surveys
Heat and drought during grain filling, and rain at harvest, leave a mark on quality that weather records show early. Each call is tested on past seasons exactly as it would have been made at the time. We publish only those that beat the past average clearly.
Canada CWRS protein (%)
Call on 1 Sep, before the Canadian Grain Commission harvest survey. Error 36% lower than the past average, direction right in 65% of 20 seasons.
France soft wheat moisture (%)
Call on 1 Aug, before the FranceAgriMer collector survey. Error 49% lower than the past average, direction right in 84% of 19 seasons.
This season
| Indicator | Season | Call on | Our call | Past average | Survey | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France soft wheat protein (%) | 2026 | 1 Aug | 11.3 | 11.6 | 11.8 | Not published |
| France soft wheat test weight (kg/hl) | 2026 | 1 Aug | 81.0 | 77.1 | 79.3 | Published |
| France soft wheat moisture (%) | 2026 | 1 Aug | 11.2 | 13.2 | 11.3 | Published |
| Canada CWRS protein (%) | 2026 | 1 Sep | 13.6 | 13.6 | pending | Published |
French protein depends on fertiliser management more than weather, and our calls do not beat the past average: we do not publish them.
Every indicator we tested
| Indicator | Call on | Seasons | Error vs past average | Direction right | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada CWRS protein (%) | 15 Jul | 20 | -18% | 75% | Published |
| Canada CWRS protein (%) | 1 Aug | 20 | -12% | 75% | Published |
| Canada CWRS protein (%) | 15 Aug | 20 | -28% | 70% | Published |
| Canada CWRS protein (%) | 1 Sep | 20 | -36% | 65% | Published |
| France soft wheat moisture (%) | 1 Jul | 19 | -21% | 79% | Published |
| France soft wheat moisture (%) | 15 Jul | 19 | -36% | 79% | Published |
| France soft wheat moisture (%) | 1 Aug | 19 | -49% | 84% | Published |
| France soft wheat protein (%) | 15 Jun | 21 | +10% | 43% | Not published |
| France soft wheat protein (%) | 1 Jul | 21 | +10% | 48% | Not published |
| France soft wheat protein (%) | 15 Jul | 21 | +7% | 43% | Not published |
| France soft wheat protein (%) | 1 Aug | 21 | +7% | 43% | Not published |
| France soft wheat test weight (kg/hl) | 15 Jun | 11 | +6% | 73% | Not published |
| France soft wheat test weight (kg/hl) | 1 Jul | 11 | -3% | 73% | Not published |
| France soft wheat test weight (kg/hl) | 15 Jul | 11 | -7% | 82% | Not published |
| France soft wheat test weight (kg/hl) | 1 Aug | 11 | -11% | 73% | Provisional |