Wheat seen from orbit
Every week, polar-orbiting satellites measure how green and how heat-stressed the vegetation is on every 4 km pixel of the planet. Masked to wheat fields and averaged over each growing region, this becomes an early, independent read of the crop, weeks before any official estimate.
Live map
Crop health, week by week
Vegetation health index over the wheat area of each region, last 52 weeks (latest: week ending 21 Oct 2026). Press play to watch the seasons move from one hemisphere to the other. Marker size: share of the origin's wheat.
Seasons
Each season against its own history
Pick an origin. The curve shows the season so far against the range of every season since 2000; the stripes show all of them at once; the scatter checks whether spring greenness lines up with the final yield.
US hard red winter wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.85, 15 seasons. Open the United States forecasts →
France soft wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = -0.30, 13 seasons. Open the France forecasts →
Russia wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.74, 15 seasons. Open the Russia forecasts →
Ukraine wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.62, 15 seasons. Open the Ukraine forecasts →
Argentina wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.62, 15 seasons. Open the Argentina forecasts →
Australia wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.79, 15 seasons. Open the Australia forecasts →
Canada wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.83, 15 seasons. Open the Canada forecasts →
EU wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = -0.05, 15 seasons. Open the European Union forecasts →
China wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.19, 15 seasons. Open the China forecasts →
India wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = -0.02, 15 seasons. Open the India forecasts →
Pakistan wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = -0.18, 15 seasons. Open the Pakistan forecasts →
Turkey wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.64, 15 seasons. Open the Turkey forecasts →
Kazakhstan wheat: this season against every season since 2000
Below 40 the crop is under stress. The orange line is the season with the worst yield in the backtest.
Every season, week by week
Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.
Does the satellite see the yield?
r = 0.74, 15 seasons. Open the Kazakhstan forecasts →
Evidence
Where it helps, and where it does not
The satellite feeds the nowcast only where it improved accuracy in testing. In Russia it cut the July error by about a quarter; in Argentina it made the forecast worse and was left out.
| Origin | Used in the nowcast | Window | Seasons | Correlation with yield vs trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | no | April–May | 15 | +0.85 |
| France | yes | April–May | 13 | -0.30 |
| Russia | yes | April–May | 15 | +0.74 |
| Ukraine | yes | April–May | 15 | +0.62 |
| Argentina | no | September–October | 15 | +0.62 |
| Australia | yes | September–October | 15 | +0.79 |
| Canada | yes | July | 15 | +0.83 |
| European Union | no | April–May | 15 | -0.05 |
| China | no | April–May | 15 | +0.19 |
| India | no | February–mid-March | 15 | -0.02 |
| Pakistan | yes | February–mid-March | 15 | -0.18 |
| Turkey | yes | April–May | 15 | +0.64 |
| Kazakhstan | yes | July | 15 | +0.74 |
How to read it
Three numbers from one sensor
Vegetation condition
How green the canopy is (NDVI) compared with the lowest and highest values ever seen for that week and pixel. 0 = worst on record, 100 = best.
Temperature condition
Thermal stress from the brightness temperature, scaled the same way. Low values mean the canopy is hot and dry.
Vegetation health
The mean of the two. Below 40 the vegetation is under stress; below 20, severe drought. Comparable across regions and years.